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Solar Bulletin January, 2002

Solar Bulletin

THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF VARIABLE STAR OBSERVERS - SOLAR DIVISION
Carl E. Feehrer, Editor
9 Gleason Rd.
Bedford, MA 01730
Email: cfeehrer@hotmail.com

ISSN 0271-8480

Volume 58 Number 1January 2002

Table I. Mean Sunspot Numbers for January 2002
[boldface = maximum, minimum]
Table II. January Observers
Day N Raw s.d. K-corrected s.d. s.e.
1 30 176 9.1 136 3.6 0.66
2 28 191 9.4 145 4.3 0.81
3 33 197 7.9 147 4.7 0.82
4 34 200 9.1 147 3.9 0.67
5 26 163 10.2 119 4.1 0.80
6 24 133 11.7 92 4.9 1.00
7 23 103 8.5 76 3.2 0.67
8 29 138 5.2 105 2.6 0.48
9 30 163 6.3 121 2.3 0.42
10 27 173 9.6 126 4.6 0.89
11 33 181 7.6 142 4.4 0.77
12 28 188 9.8 141 3.8 0.72
13 27 192 8.4 144 5.7 1.10
14 27 183 8.7 135 3.6 0.69
15 21 146 8.0 111 3.9 0.85
16 26 112 6.0 85 2.8 0.55
17 22 105 5.1 87 3.8 0.81
18 29 125 4.8 92 3.4 0.63
19 22 144 7.3 104 3.9 0.83
20 29 153 9.0 118 3.4 0.63
21 20 175 8.8 132 4.7 1.05
22 34 180 9.0 134 3.1 0.53
23 25 172 14.1 128 5.7 1.14
24 23 154 11.8 114 5.4 1.13
25 34 142 8.1 102 4.2 0.72
26 29 145 5.5 115 3.2 0.59
27 31 164 10.2 120 4.3 0.77
28 33 165 10.8 126 4.6 0.80
29 27 163 10.6 122 5.1 0.98
30 24 170 9.0 122 3.0 0.61
31 30 174 10.0 129 3.7 0.68
Means: 160.3 119.9  
No. of Observations: 858
No. of Observers: 66
15 AAP P.Abbott
2 ANDE E.Anderson
10 ATON A.Attanasio
19 BARH H.Barnes
10 BATR R.Battaiola
13 BEB R.Berg
6 BERJ J.Berdejo
8 BMF M.Boschat
9 BOSB B.Bose
22 BRAB B.Branchett
20 BRAD D.Branchett
25 BRAR R.Branch
23 BROB R.Brown
8 CARJ J.Carlson
31 CHAG G.Morales
21 CKB B.Cudnik
8 CLZ L.Corp
3 COMT T.Compton
28 CR T.Cragg
1 DEMF F.Dempsey
21 DGP G.Dyck
19 DRAJ J.Dragesco
14 DUBF F.Dubois
25 ELR E.Reed
8 FEEC C.Feehrer
19 FERJ J.Fernandez
15 FLET T.Fleming
23 FUJK K.Fujimori
22 GIOR R.Giovanoni
9 GOTS S.Gottschalk
17 GUNM M.Gundlach
3 HALB B.Halls
22 JAMD D.James
16 JEFT T.Jeffrey
6 KHAR R.Khan
16 KNJS J&S Knight
2 KUZM M.Kuzmin
7 LARJ J.Larriba
5 LERM M.Lerman
19 LEVM M.Leventhal
22 MARJ J.Maranon
26 MCE E.Mochizuki
7 MILJ J.Miller
10 MMI M.Moeller
2 MUDG G.Mudry
18 OBSO IPS Observatory
2 RAMJ J.Ramsey
10 RICE E.Richardson
15 RITA A.Ritchie
12 SCGL G.Schott
4 SCHG G.Scholl
4 SIMC C.Simpson
9 STEF G.Stefanopoulos
20 STQ N.Stoikidis
27 SUZM M.Suzuki
2 SZAK K.Szatkowski
6 SZUM M.Szulc
17 TESD D.Teske
10 THR R.Thompson
5 TJV J.Temprano
4 URBP P.Urbanski
12 VALD D.delValle
16 VARG A.Vargas
7 WILW W.Wilson
8 WKW K.Watts
13 YESH H.Yesilyaprak

Reporting Addresses

Sunspot Reports -- email: solar@aavso.org

postal mail: AAVSO, 25 Birch St. Cambridge, MA 02138
FAX (AAVSO): (617) 354-0665

SES Reports -- email: noatak@aol.com

postal mail: Mike Hill 114 Prospect St. Marlboro, MA 01752

Magnetometer Reports -- email: capaavso@aol.com

postal mail: Casper Hossfield PO Box 23, New Milford, NY 10959
FAX: (973) 853-2588 or (407) 482-3963

Table III. Means of Raw Group Counts (RG) and Ratios of Spots to Groups (S:G) in January  2002
Day RG S:G Day RG S:G Day RG S:G Day RG S:G
1 10.8 6.3 9 9.0 8.1 17 7.1 4.8 25 9.5 5.0
2 11.5 6.6 10 8.6 10.1 18 8.1 5.4 26 8.8 6.5
3 12.0 6.4 11 10.3 7.6 19 9.6 5.0 27 8.6 9.1
4 12.5 6.0 12 10.8 7.4 20 10.2 5.0 28 9.3 7.7
5 10.5 5.5 13 10.4 8.5 21 11.3 5.5 29 8.8 8.5
6 8.3 6.0 14 10.4 7.6 22 11.0 6.4 30 9.3 8.3
7 6.6 5.6 15 9.2 5.9 23 12.1 4.2 31 8.0 11.8
8 8.7 5.9 16 7.7 4.6 24 10.3 5.0 Mn. 9.7 6.6

Figure 1
Click image to enlarge.
Fig.1.10 cm Solar Flux and Comparison of Ri (provisional) and Ra Estimates for January.
(Ri Source: http://sidc..oma.be/index.php3)
(!0cm Source: http://www.drao.nrc.ca/icarus)

Figure 2
Click image to enlarge.
Fig.2 Maximum, Mean, and Minimum Ra Values for Each Month from January 2000 to Present.

Smoothed Mean Sunspot Number (Rsm) for July 2001: 124.0

Figure 3
Click image to enlarge.
Fig.3 Monthly Ra and Smoothed Mean Sunspot Numbers (Waldmeier method).

Figure 4
Fig. 4a. Plot showing peaks in Ra in July 2000 and September 2001.

Recently, sources that report on the sun's activity (see for example, http://science.nasa.gov,Jan.18; http://www.nationalacademies.org, Jan. 24) have pointed to evidence of a second maximum in the current solar cycle. This possibility is suggested by both sunspot counts and radio activity and may represent occurrences of "twin" peaks similar to those observed in the last two cycles. The AAVSO Solar Division's data clearly support the argument for a double maximum, and the peaks can be seen in Figures 2 and 3.

Figure 4a (above) presents a more favorable plot of a portion of the cycle, beginning with a rise in Ra from October 1996 and continuing to December 2001. Maximum values of the Ra index are identified with July, 2000 and September, 2001.

Figure 4b (below) presents a close-up of the critical region, along with the plot of a 4th order polynomial (smooth line) that helps to highlight the overall symmetry of this portion of the distribution

Figure 4b Click image to enlarge.
Close-up of Critical Region.

Editor's Note

Death of a SID Observer
I regret to inform you of the death of Phil Del Vecchio (A-03) in December, 2001 at the age of 97. Phil's participation began in 1956 when the AAVSO's SID observation program was initiated in support of the International Geophysical Year (IGY) activities. Details of Phil's interests and contributions to the AAVSO can be found in Casper Hossfield's supplement to this issue of the Bulletin.

Omissions in December 2001 Bulletin
Two names were omitted from the Vol. 57, No. 12 list of observers (Table IV) who contributed sunspot reports in 2001. One of the observers, Laurent Corp (CLZ), who lives in Rodez, France, has been a loyal observer for several years and has recently contributed several solar photographs to the AAVSO/Solar Division website. The second observer, Javier Temprano, (TJV), lives in Santander, Spain and made his first report to the Division at the end of December. I apologize to both of you for having failed to include your names in the table.

Returning Observers
After interruptions of several years, three former observers, Marcelo Gundlach (GUNM), who lives in Cochabamba, Bolivia, James Ramsey (RAMJ), who lives in Batesville, Arkansas, and Kenneth Watts (WKW), from North Hill, California, submitted reports this month. Thank you for your observations and welcome back!

Additions to Bulletin
Beginning with this issue of the Bulletin, a plot of the 10-cm flux measurements reported by the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory (DRAO) of Canada will routinely be included in Figure 1. Also included in the Figure will be the correlation between Ri and Ra indices.

Reminder: Deadline for Submission of Monthly Sunspot Reports
Often, several email and regular mail reports arrive too late for inclusion in the monthly database that is used to produce the estimates of the Ra index. This can result in greater uncertainty (larger standard deviations and/or standard errors) in our estimate of the sunspot number than would be the case if the full set of contributed reports was able to be used. The effective "loss" of data is of particular concern when, during the winter months in northern Europe and the U.S., the numbers of observations typically tend to be lower than during the rest of the year.

The value of the Ra index to the solar research community is directly related to the numbers of observations that are used in its preparation. Please try very hard to get your monthly report into the AAVSO's hands by 5pm EST on the 10th of the month. Earlier, if possible. Thank you.

Clear Skies,

-CEF

Michael Hill, SID Analyst
114 Prospect St
Marlborough, MA 01752 USA
noatak@aol.com

Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances (SID) Recorded During January 2002

(Analysis performed by Michael Hill, SID Analyst)
Date Max Imp Date Max Imp Date Max Imp
020202 0930 1- 020212 1842 3 020222 1428 1-
020202 1247 2 020213 1313 1+ 020224 1508 1-
020202 1758 1+ 020213 1340 1 020225 1820 1+
020203 1713 2 020213 1526 2+ 020225 1909 1+
020204 1746 2+ 020213 1712 1 020225 2218 2+
020204 1829 1+ 020213 1947 2 020226 1450 1-
020204 2016 3 020215 1729 1- 020226 1954 2+
020205 1041 2 020215 1752 1 020229 0855 1+
020205 1714 2+ 020216 0811 1 020230 1228 1+
020205 1828 2+ 020216 0909 1- 020230 1337 1
020206 1141 1- 020216 0931 1- 020230 1639 1-
020206 1246 1 020216 1010 1 020230 1741 1-
020206 1311 1- 020216 1400 2 020231 1010 1-
020206 1445 1- 020216 1508 1 020231 1428 1-
020207 1419 1- 020216 1530 1- 020231 1445 2+
020208 1723 2+ 020216 1557 2 020231 1524 1-
020209 0955 1 020216 1657 1+ 020231 1645 1+
020209 1116 2 020216 1758 1      
020209 1755 3 020216 2009 1      
020210 1018 2+ 020216 2028 2+      
020210 1516 1+ 020217 1149 1-      
020210 1603 2 020219 1007 1      
020211 1848 1- 020220 1552 2      
020211 2006 2 020222 0858 2+      
020212 1517 2+ 020222 1316 1      

The events listed above meet at least one of the following criteria
  1. Reported in at least two observer reports
  2. Visually analyzed with definiteness rating = 5
  3. Reported by overseas observers with high definiteness rating

Observer Code Station(s) monitored
A Clerkin A29 NAA
J Winkler A50 NAA, NPM
D Toldo A52 NWC
J Ellerbe A63 ICV
P King A80 FTA
W Moos A84 FTA
M Hill A87 NAA
T Poulos A95 NAA
R Battaiola A96 HWU
J Wallace A97 NAA
NJAA A98 NAA
M King A99 GBZ
Importance Duration (min)
1- < 19
1 19 – 25
1+ 26-32
2 33-45
2+ 46-85
3 86-125
3+ > 125

Solar Events

January was not an overly busy month for SID recordings, although there were a few days that did have a lot of activity. The most active day, of course, was January 16th , with all but one of the X-Ray flares recorded that day resulting in SID events for many observers. There were 12 in all that day. The GOES-8 Satellite recoreded 202 X-Ray events this month, but many of them were of the smaller scale. Of these, 22 were M-Class flares. There were no X-Class flares at all. Many of the SID events recorded were of small duration; hence most of the events had an average importance rating of 1- to 1+ . There were, however, three events with an importance rating of 3. These were on the 4th at 2016, the 9th at 1755, and the 12th at1842.

We are going to be heading into a time where there will be more and more smaller C-Class flares as opposed to the large M and X Class we have been used to in the past 6 months or so. I just re-tuned my receiver for better reception. I would suggest the same to all observers if you have not done so recently. This will help to catch the smaller SID events that will be more prominent in the months to come. I found that, once adjusted, I had a much cleaner trace and a bit more sensitivity to smaller changes in signal strength. If you are having trouble recording events don't hesitate to try a different station. It might be interesting for European observers to tune in to NAA, which is a strong signal, to get a perspective on the effects in conjunction with American observers looking at the same signal from the south and from the west. Don't be afraid to experiment. That is where the fun comes in this endeavor, and it may lead to some interesting results.

Casper H. Hossfield, SID Sup. Editor
PO Box 23
New Milford, NY 10959, USA
SUDDEN IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES
RECORDED DURING January, 2002
capaavso@aol.com
Fax 973 853 2588

There is sad News to report. We have lost Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance observer, A-3, Phil Del Vecchio, our oldest SID observer, who died 28 December, 2001 at age 97. Phil was one of the four original observers when the SEA program started in 1956 as part of the International Geophysical Year, IGY. Phil still had an SES receiver running in the nursing home where he spent his last years and it was still recording solar flares the day he died. The National Bureau of Standards had set up the AAVSO's SID program by loaning them four Brown strip chart recorders one of which went to Phil who was then an AAVSO sunspot observer. Phil lived in Paterson, New Jersey where he wrote the Nature Column for the Paterson Morning Call newspaper and often mentioned his solar flare detector and the big flares of solar cycle 19 he was then recording. I too lived in Paterson and visited Phil one day to see his SEA receiver and decided I had to have one, and became A-5 in 1958. Phil was also an amateur seismologist, and a seismograph he built for the Nature Center in Garret Mountain Park near Paterson can still be seen recording earthquakes for the US Geological Survey. It is the main attraction for school children who visit the Nature Center on field trips. They are fascinated by the line the seismograph draws on paper at 1mm/sec and the way the pen lifts for one second to mark each minute of time. Children intuitively understand how a seismograph works. This was something Phil understood and the reason he built the seismograph for the nature center as a way of sharing the wonders of science with the public. As Director of the Paterson Museum and through his Nature Column Phil spent much of his lifetime popularizing science and getting children interested in doing science as amateurs which sometimes lead to their choosing science as a career. Phil will be missed by the many people whose lives he touched during his long lifetime.

Below is a schematic for an amplifier that Andries Son in Belgium designed for his McWilliams magnetometer. It is basically the same Wheatstone bridge most of us use to draw our magnetograms but adding the 741 operational amplifier has many advantages. Andries uses a 0.25 mm diameter torsion wire 30 cm long whereas most of us use a thinner 0.2 mm wire about 40 cm long. The sensitivity of the magnetometer varies directly as the length and as the fourth power of the diameter of the torsion wire so Andries would have little chance of recording magnetic storms without the amplifier. There are other advantages too. The 10 k potentiometer can be used to center the recording and the 27 k resistor could be made variable to adjust the gain when calibrating the magnetometer with a Helmholtz coil so it will measure the strength of the magnetic storms in nanoTeslas.

Click image to enlarge.

Below are two charts made by Jerry Winkler, A-50, in Houston, Texas of flares recorded by monitoring 25.2 kHz in La mourie, North Dakota, USA. The upper halves of these charts are an attempt to monitor NRK on 37.5 kHz in Iceland. Jerry and I have been trying to monitor this distant and weak signal but with no success. The problem seems to be the signal is overwhelmed by interference. I decided the best way to monitor NRK might be to design a better receiver less prone to pick up interference. I have been experimenting with this new receiver by recording NAA in Cutler, Maine, USA on 24 khz. Below Jerry's charts is an NAA chart I made on 4 Feb with the new receiver here in Florida where I spend the winters. It shows two inverted SESs starting at ~1530 and ~1900 UT. Notice the nice clean thin interference-free trace. You might think I got this nice trace by using a big integrating capacitor. Wrong. The capacitor across the DC output is only 0.1 mfd compared to 10.0 mfd used in Gyrator receivers. The response of the receiver is so fast it ignores lightning interference which is plentiful here in Florida. It is a surprisingly simple fixed-frequency receiver consisting of only two Radio Shack TL082 op amps, a 33 mH ferrite core coil, two diodes and six resistors plus capacitors to tune the loop antenna and the 33 mH coil. A 5000 ohm potentiometer across the DC output adjusts the gain. If you would be interested in building one of these simple interference-free receivers send me an email and I'll send you a schematic and additional information how to build it.

Click image to enlarge.

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