[AAVSO-DIS] Trends in visual observing

[Matthew Templeton]

Hello everyone,

One of the projects I have "running in the background" is a study of
trends in visual observing.  There has been a marked decline in the
number of visual observations submitted per year over the past decade;
last year we received about half the number of visual observations
(~210,000) that we did in our most prolific year (1999: ~385,000).  The
amount of visual data being submitted to the AAVSO now is at about the
same level as in the mid-1980s.

This decline has triggered alarm bells with many people, since there are
a large number of amateur and professional observers (myself included)
that view visual observers and their data as an important part of
variable star research.  However, the reasons for the decline aren't as
straightforward as "we're losing visual observers to CCD observing."
The number of visual observers has declined but not as precipitously as
the number of observations would suggest.  And surprisingly, the number
of stars for which visual data have been submitted has gone *up* rather
than down.

It may be that we're losing experienced observers to CCD observing, or 
that observers who still observe visually are not as prolific as they 
were.  One piece of evidence for that latter point can be seen in this 
graph showing the number of observations submitted per year by the ten 
most prolific observers:

         http://www.aavso.org/images2/vis_trends.png

There's a wide variation in the number of observations submitted per year, 
particularly among the top 3-4 observers, but the general trends seem to 
be very similar for each rank over time.  What it suggests is that among 
even the prolific and dedicated observers, their annual totals are 
declining.  The raw numbers can't provide the reasons for this, although 
one could come up with a number of plausible explanations.

To learn more about why, I'd like to throw the question out to the visual 
observers: if you do not observe visually as much as you used to, why not? 
Are there things the AAVSO can do to encourage more visual observing? 
What are your perceptions of the visual observing program of the AAVSO? 
What, if anything, would make you continue or increase your visual 
observing?

I'd appreciate hearing your comments, either on the group or via private 
email.  I'm working on a JAAVSO paper on this topic with input from users 
of visual observations like Dr. John Percy.  I hope to have this completed 
before the middle of this year.

Clear skies,

         Matthew